Football
65%
Draw or one-goal margin.
2.80 goals a game
Sports predictions · Betting tips today
Sports predictions. Every sport has its own maths.
A 3-point favourite in the NFL, a home side in the Premier League and a run line in MLB are three very different bets. We cover twelve sports — and show you the real numbers behind each one.
Home advantage by sport
RECENT SEASONSFootball2,001 games
NFL630 games
MLB2,430 games
Football: top five European leagues. NFL and MLB: regular season and play-offs, neutral venues excluded.
Today
58 live ›664 games and events today
🏏Cricket3 live
- LIVEWest Indies v India
- LIVEEasterns v Knights
- LIVEBoland v Western Province
🏇Horse racing65 races
- Kempton (AW) · 10 runners
- Kempton (AW) · 12 runners
- Kempton (AW) · 11 runners
Handicaps · Spreads · Run lines
How often is it close?
Close games decide handicaps, spreads and run lines. Here is how often each sport comes down to its smallest possible margin.
NFL
55%
Decided by one score (8 pts or fewer).
46.1 points a game
MLB
29%
Decided by a single run.
8.9 runs a game
NFL · Spreads and totals
Winning is not covering.
How NFL favourites did in recent seasons, grouped by the closing point spread: how often they won the game, and how often they beat the spread.
Favourites by spread size
- 1-3 pts246 games 57% 50%
- 3.5-6.5 pts234 games 72% 52%
- 7-9.5 pts112 games 68% 37%
- 10+ pts57 games 93% 60%
Dashed line = 50%. Pick'em games (spread 0) are left out.
NFL totals
Share of games that went over the closing total.
The closing line is close to a coin flip — an edge comes from weather, injuries and pace, not from always taking the over or the under.
MLB · Totals and run lines
How many runs is normal?
Total runs per game across the most recent full MLB season. The spread of this chart is the starting point for every over/under.
Total runs per game
OVER 7.555%
OVER 8.549%
OVER 9.539%
One-run games
Share of MLB games decided by a single run.
Nearly a third of games are decided by one run, and 9% go to extra innings — the reason the -1.5 run line on a favourite is never as safe as it looks.
Tool · Parlay calculator
What are the real odds of your parlay?
Every leg has to win, so the chances multiply. Pick how many legs and how likely each one is — or start from a real win rate.
Assumes the legs are independent. Correlated legs (same game) behave differently.
ALL LEGS WIN21.6%
FAIR ODDS4.63
- 1 leg60.0%
- 2 legs36.0%
- 3 legs21.6%
- 4 legs13.0%
- 5 legs7.8%
- 6 legs4.7%
- 7 legs2.8%
- 8 legs1.7%
Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability. If the parlay price is shorter than the fair odds, the bet loses value in the long run.
Twelve sports · no sign-up
Today's free picks.
No sign-up needed. Each sport has its own page, its own markets and its own method.
VIP Gold Member · All sports
VIP picks, across every sport.
VIP selections use the same numbers, with line-ups, injuries and late news reviewed before the start.
Bronze$29.90Silver$59.90Gold$79.90
Number one in Football on Patreon
Playbook · FAQ
Betting, explained.
Every figure on this page is counted from real, completed games.
How do parlays work, and why are they so hard to win?
Every leg of a parlay has to win, so the probabilities multiply. Three picks that each win 60% of the time land together only about 22% of the time; add a fourth and it drops to about 13%. Use the parlay calculator on this page to see the real chance before you combine picks.
How much is home advantage worth in each sport?
It differs by sport. In the top five European football leagues the home side won 44% of matches (with 25% draws). In the NFL home teams won 53% and in MLB 54%. It is a real edge, but a small one — never a pick on its own.
How do I predict NFL games against the spread?
Winning and covering are different questions. In recent NFL seasons favourites of 10 points or more won 93% of games outright but covered only 60% of the time. Big favourites win; the spread already prices that in. Look for injuries, rest and matchup edges the line may not reflect.
How should I approach MLB totals?
Start with the starting pitchers, then the ballpark and the weather. Across the most recent MLB season games averaged 8.9 runs, and 49% went over 8.5. Wind blowing out, a hitter-friendly park or two weak bullpens push totals up.
What makes a match "close" and why does it matter?
Close games decide spreads, handicaps and correct scores. 65% of top-flight football matches end level or by one goal, 55% of NFL games are decided by one score and 29% of MLB games by a single run. The closer a sport usually is, the more value there is in the underdog with a start.
Should I bet the NFL over or the under?
Neither by default. Across recent seasons 52% of games went over the closing total — close to a coin flip. The edge comes from what the line may not have caught yet: strong wind or rain, a backup quarterback, or two defences on a short week.